Fox Letter exposes Tories’ difficulties over cuts in defence

A letter from Defence Secretary Liam Fox to David Cameron, and leaked to the Daily Telegraph, has exposed a fundamental difficulty for the government, and specifically the Conservative party, in reconciling cuts and maintaining defence readiness.

The main plank of this government’s policies has been to reduce the country’s structural deficit, mainly by announcing deep cuts in public spending.

This may make them unpopular, but a smaller state is at least a traditional part of Tory thinking, and the much heralded big society plans, and the government’s friends in the press have persuaded most that cuts in some degree are needed.

But when it came to power the government also wanted to put national security, in the widest sense at the heart of it policies, with David Cameron setting up a new national security committee in the first week of his government.

And the letter from Dr Fox to Mr Cameron shows that the cutting agenda could hurt the government politically, it said: “Party, media, military and the international reaction will be brutal if we do not recognise the dangers and continue to push for such draconian cuts at a time when we are at war.”

The Tories have traditionally been the party of defence, the country is at war, and the previous government was criticized for under-equipping troops fighting in theatre.

But the chancellor is insisting that defence spending is not to be ringfenced, and that leaves the Conservatives (because Liberal Democrat members of the government are to an extent immune from this) vulnerable.

The government has said that it will replace Trident, at the initial cost of £20 billion, and I have previously described the disagreement between Dr Fox and Chancellor George Osborne, who insists that that money will come from the defence budget, not central spending.

Cutting £20 bn from operational budgets, including body armour and armoured vehicles for troops in combat, to fund a nuclear programme which nobody hopes we have to use leaves the government open to criticism that it is increasing danger for personnel and has blood on its hands.

It may be that the government tries to dodge that particular issue by putting off the Trident issue until the next parliament, but even if it does, the cuts being suggested would still be fertile ground for critics of the government.

Cuts to schools and hospitals maybe unpopular but they don’t have the visceral impact, or media coverage of bodies being driven through Wootton Bassett.

And it is natural Tory supporters who will feel most betrayed if either it appears the country’s nuclear deterrent is being downgraded or that British troops are in more danger because of the government’s cutting agenda.

This issue has been one of the most difficult for the government and has caused incidents a number of times in the first six months of it’s administration.

My guess is this will be a large thorn in David Cameron’s side for many months to come.

Threat to UK from Somalia has increased - MI5 Chief

Jonathan Evans, chief of the Security Service (MI5) has claimed that there is a significant threat to the UK from terrorists training in Somalia.

Mr Evans also said the threat to the UK from dissident Irish Republicans has increased over the last year.

At a speech in London yesterday, Mr Evans told the Worshipful Company of Security Professionals, a "significant number of UK residents" were training with Islamist militants in Somalia to be able to carry out terror attacks.

He said: "I am concerned that it's only a matter of time before we see terrorism on our streets inspired by those who are today fighting alongside al-Shabaab [an Islamist militia in Somalia]."

He went on to say Somalia was growing as a base for British extremists, with the focus moving form tribal areas of Pakistan, which now accounted for half the plots against the UK instead of 75 per cent.

The Security Service boss said: "Al-Shabaab ... is closely aligned with al-Qaida, and Somalia shows many of the characteristics that made Afghanistan so dangerous a seedbed for terrorism in the period before the fall of the Taliban."

Mr Evans also warned that there were more signs of co-ordination and co-operation by dissident and often hitherto splintered Irish republican groups, he said there had been a 50 per cent increase in attacks, with 30 launched this year compared to 20 throughout the whole of 2009.

I have argued a number of times in this blog that the war in Afghanistan has become a terrible distraction to efforts against interntaionsl Al Qaeda inspired or related terrorism.

Uk and US operations in Afghanistan began with the intention of disrupting Al Qaeda operations bases and personnel; to prevent more attacks being planned and launched from the country.
But now western troops, and crucially, their supporting intelligence structures, including SIS, Security Service and GCHQ are busyfighting a local insurgency, the Taliban.

There is very little threat to the UK at home from the Taliban, if at all; even Mr Evans says the plots against Britain in the region stem from Pakistan, not Afghanistan.

Meanwhile extremists and dissidents are comparatively free to train, organise and plot while the security forces are looking the other way.

Britain has found itself stuck in a seemingly intractable fight in Afghanistan, and it is very difficult to know what to do.

Declaring victory and withdrawing would seem to once again abandon the country to a horrible fate, and would also be seen, rightly, as an ignominious retreat.

But to carry on regardless put the country at great risk of having the security resources pointing the wrong way, and should another attack take place in Britain, I believe, the distraction of fighting the Taliban insurgency will have been a contributory factor.